Yudhoyono, The “Presidential Chef” Indonesia Election 2019

Yudhoyono-Prabowo (Kompas.com)

Indonesia President Election 2019 is predicted will not be much different from the 2014 Presidential Election, with only two candidate pairs followed. That, too, like the 2014 presidential election, the presidential candidate who will fight is also similar: Jokowi and Prabowo. Only the vice presidential candidates will be different, after Vice President Jusuf Kalla (JK) affirmed no longer intend to follow the nomination of president or vice president. This is very understandable due to the age of JK who has entered the twilight. While in the camp Prabowo, the opportunity to hold Hatta Rajasa as vice president is still very open. However, about who will be the companion Jokowi-Prabowo, it's still too early to discuss.

Well, the meeting of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) and Prabowo Subianto in Cikeas became very interesting observed. Especially when it is related to the Election Law which requires Presidential Threshold (PT) 20 percent. With PT 20 percent, inevitably political parties are likely to coalesce to carry the presidential candidate. While the combined vote (election results 2014) based on the composition of party supporters of the current government is very sufficient to re-carry Jokowi as president. On the other hand, with non-government party wagons have also been able to nominate Prabowo.

Both nominating scenarios eventually put Democrats to the fore. Democrats are in the middle, which if siding with one of the candidates will have a significant impact. In other words, Democrats return to play their role as the 2014 presidential election takes place. At that time, Democrats chose not to side with Jokowi or Prabowo. The result, Jokowi won the presidential election with a thin result.

Then, how the position of Democrats under the command of SBY in the 2019 presidential election later? With the meeting SBY-Prabowo, of course will give new hope for Prabowo. At least, Prabowo will appear more confident to face Jokowi. If Democrats really support Prabowo in the 2019 presidential election, his chances of winning are of course very high. Conversely, if SBY finally blesses Jokowi, Prabowo's chances of winning are thin.

Herein lies the strategic position of SBY. He has the political power to decide who is the winner of the 2019 presidential election. With the requirement of PT 20 percent, even though SBY calls it injure the people, but in fact has generated enormous profits for the Democrats. Because, with the high PT, presidential candidates are almost certainly only two pairs. Of course it will be different story if PT only pegged zero percent, which gives opportunity for all party to carry its candidate.

In conclusion, the beneficiaries in the provisions of PT 20 percent are actually on the Democratic side. Prabowo and Jokowi once again have to "seduce" SBY if they want to win a landslide victory in the 2019 presidential election. If Prabowo has seduced SBY, when is Jokowi's turn? What is clear, the dish of “fried rice” served to Prabowo in Cikeas meeting can be interpreted as a political symbol. That SBY is a chef in the 2019 presidential election. Whatever happens in the 2019 presidential election, is the result of "cuisine" from SBY.

*This article also published on my bahasa Indonesia blog